A volatile year has come to an end. The gain to the portfolio has been surprisingly good, especially when considering the slaughter early in the year. In the red for tankers but everything else, uranium, oil, gold, containers, liquified petroleum gas, was in the green and the year ended with a 31% portfolio gain. The portfolio churn has been much higher than in previous years due to the many trading opportunities that presented themselves.
CAGR for the 7-year period since going full-time is at 24%. My approach has been highly concentrated towards few names so the element of chance is likely quite high, even over a 7-year period. On the other hand there has been no tail winds from high flyer tech companies in my portfolio and it has been almost exclusively restricted to deep value. The latter has had a tough decade, so significant outperformance versus the major indexes despite this headwind gives me some confidence that stock picking may have added value outweighing at least some of the potential luck factor.
After quite a bit of reshuffling late in the year my portfolio as of January 1st looks like this (biggest positions in each sector in paratheses):
Shipping, energy, commodities. Definitely not for the faint of heart. However, valuations are low for these sectors and if one can stand share price volatility I would argue that risk/reward is more a function of price versus value than anything else.